创新药发生了什么，后续怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent pullback in the innovative drug sector, emphasizing the fragility of market expectations driven by business development (BD) activities and the potential for valuation bubbles to form when these expectations are not met [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The innovative drug sector has experienced significant volatility, with companies facing declines due to various BD-related factors, indicating weak market expectations [2][4]. - The phenomenon of "betting on BD" has evolved from a rational approach to a speculative one, leading to inflated valuations based on anticipated deals rather than actual performance [4][6]. - The market's focus on BD has overshadowed the fundamental improvements in the performance of innovative drug companies, which have shown significant growth in revenue and profit [7][11]. Group 2: Valuation Concerns - Prolonged periods without actual BD transactions can lead to valuation bubbles, with stock prices facing sharp corrections when BD progress falls short of expectations [5][6]. - The allure of BD transactions, often involving substantial upfront payments, can create a misleading perception of immediate value increase, diverting attention from the lengthy and complex drug development process [6][9]. - The article highlights that many high-value BD deals do not fully materialize, with only a fraction of the total deal value being realized, which can lead to disillusionment among investors [6][9]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The current "bubble clearing" phase is viewed positively, as it allows for the differentiation between fundamentally strong companies and those relying on speculative narratives, providing a better entry point for long-term investors [9][11]. - Historical trends suggest that the aftermath of a market correction often presents the best opportunities for identifying and investing in companies with solid fundamentals and long-term growth potential [9][11]. - The innovative drug sector has evolved significantly over the past four years, moving from a focus on high-end generics to a more diverse landscape of innovative therapies, indicating a maturation of the industry [11].