【广发宏观吴棋滢】经济大省的投资修复是2026年的关注点之一

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of a new policy financial tool amounting to 500 billion yuan aimed at supporting major economic provinces in China, highlighting the importance of these provinces in driving economic growth and investment recovery. Group 1: Policy Financial Tool Implementation - A new policy financial tool of 500 billion yuan was fully deployed by the end of October, with significant funding directed towards 12 major economic provinces, accounting for approximately 78%, 72%, and nearly 80% of the total funding from different policy banks [1][5][6] - The Ministry of Finance has allocated a local debt limit of 200 billion yuan specifically for projects in these major economic provinces [1][5] Group 2: Identification of Major Economic Provinces - Major economic provinces are defined as those ranking in the top 12 by GDP for 2024, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Henan, Hubei, Fujian, Shanghai, Hunan, Anhui, and Beijing, which together represent 69% of the national economic total [2][7] - Adjustments to the special bond management mechanism will allow 10 provinces to conduct "self-initiated self-examination" trials, which aligns closely with the list of major economic provinces [2][8] Group 3: Rationale for Targeting Major Economic Provinces - The focus on major economic provinces is attributed to their relative flexibility in increasing infrastructure investment amid debt constraints faced by other provinces [3][8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the role of major economic provinces as growth poles, encouraging them to lead in the modernization process [3][8] Group 4: Economic Performance and Investment Trends - In the first three quarters of the year, GDP growth reached 5.2%, with notable strengths in exports and industrial production, while fixed asset investment showed a decline of 0.5% year-on-year [4][9] - Major economic provinces exhibited significant investment shortfalls, with Guangdong's fixed asset investment down 14.1%, the lowest in the country, and other provinces like Jiangsu and Hunan also showing declines [4][9][10] Group 5: Future Investment Recovery Potential - If fixed asset investment growth in provinces like Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Shandong, and Hunan can return to the average level of 2024 (approximately 1.4%), it could contribute an estimated 0.5 percentage points to overall fixed asset investment growth [4][13] - A recovery to the 2023 average level (approximately 3.3%) could boost fixed asset investment by about 1.2 percentage points, while aligning with GDP growth (around 5%) could lead to a 1.8 percentage point increase [4][13]