【广发宏观郭磊】如何看10月出口和目前宏观面

Core Viewpoint - October exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, lower than the cumulative growth of 6.1% in the first three quarters and 6.6% in the third quarter, indicating a slowdown in export momentum due to elevated base effects [1][6][8]. Export Performance - The cumulative year-on-year export growth for the first ten months stands at 5.3%. Historical data suggests that the average ratio of combined export amounts for November-December to October's export amount is 2.16 and 2.19 for the past five and ten years, respectively, indicating potential annual export growth rates of 4.7% and 4.9% for 2025 [10][11]. - Exports to major regions show varied performance, with exports to the U.S. remaining stable, while exports to other regions have experienced varying degrees of slowdown. The share of exports to ASEAN and the EU is 17.5% and 14.9%, respectively, while exports to the U.S. have dropped to 11.4%, significantly lower than 19.2% at the end of 2018 [2][11]. Product Analysis - Labor-intensive consumer goods saw a significant decline, with exports of textiles, bags, toys, and clothing down by 15.9% year-on-year. Mobile phone exports fell by 16.6%, and household appliances by 13.6%. This trend is attributed to a shift in production focus to Southeast Asia due to lower labor costs [3][12]. - In contrast, high-end manufacturing products remain competitive, with automotive exports increasing by 34.0%, ship exports by 68.4%, and integrated circuit exports by 26.9% in October [3][12]. Future Trade Environment - The trade environment for 2026 is expected to be influenced positively by ongoing fiscal expansion and interest rate cuts in Europe and the U.S., a relatively stable tariff environment, and the growth of AI-related product trade, which is projected to increase by over 20% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [4][14]. - However, challenges such as high base effects and uncertainties in the tariff environment may lead to potential export surges that could inflate overseas inventories. Overall, a positive growth of 3-5% in Chinese exports is anticipated for the coming year [4][14]. Import Trends - After a surge in September, imports in October saw a slight increase of 1.0%, indicating that domestic demand still requires improvement and that the inventory replenishment cycle has not yet formed [6][18]. Key imports showing higher growth include soybeans (up 11.4% year-on-year) and integrated circuits (up 10.2% year-on-year) [6][18].