科尔尼发布2025全球化工行业并购交易报告

Core Insights - Despite geopolitical turmoil and a slow industry recovery, investor trading activities are gradually gaining momentum, driven by a cautious and opportunistic strategy [1] Group 1: Global Chemical M&A Trends - The chemical industry has seen a rebound in M&A activity, with a 17% year-over-year increase in global chemical M&A transaction volume last year, indicating a shift towards an upward trend [3] - Strategic factors driving increased M&A activity include chemical capacity oversupply, weak demand in the chemical and downstream industries, the need for portfolio restructuring, and regional diversification [6] - In 2024, private equity faces pressure from historically high levels of dry powder, with a 5% decline expected for the first time in years, although levels remain high by historical standards [6] Group 2: Future Outlook for M&A - In 2025, corporate entities are expected to drive M&A activity, with over 60% of chemical executives believing that M&A activity will increase compared to 2024 [9][12] - The average holding period for private equity-backed companies has reached a historical high, with over 30% held for at least five years, indicating a need for asset disposals to meet limited partner return expectations [9] - Over 90% of North American respondents cite unfavorable or unclear transaction valuations as a major barrier to M&A in 2025, highlighting the disproportionate impact of uncertainty on private equity compared to corporate entities [12] Group 3: Sector Performance - Specialty chemicals are outperforming commodity chemicals, attracting strategic interest and achieving valuation premiums due to their high margins and resilient portfolios [13] - Commodity and intermediate chemical companies face margin compression and pricing pressures, often trading at a discount or through carve-out sales [13] Group 4: Transaction Structures and Financing - Innovative transaction structures, such as earnouts and phased closings, have become standard in the market, helping to bridge valuation gaps and hedge macro risks [14][15] - Despite stable interest rates, financing remains constrained, pushing companies towards smaller transactions or carve-outs rather than large deals [15] Group 5: Regional Insights - North America is experiencing a surge in M&A activity, driven by reshoring and supply chain security, with a projected 80% year-over-year increase in 2024 [21] - In Asia, M&A activity is expected to decline by approximately 27% in 2024, primarily due to economic weakness and reduced transaction willingness amid geopolitical tensions [22] - The Middle East is emerging as a significant buyer in global acquisitions, with sovereign wealth funds and state-owned enterprises playing a crucial role [25] Group 6: European Market Dynamics - In Europe, M&A activity is being driven by restructuring and ESG considerations, with a notable increase in corporate divestitures expected [26][27] - Companies in Europe face pressure to reshape their portfolios due to increased competition and the need for capital expenditure to modernize aging assets [27]