数据点评 | 出口骤降的“隐藏线索”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - October export decline is not primarily due to weakening external demand, but rather short-term supply disruptions, which are now dissipating [3][10][65] - The significant drop in exports in October is influenced by a high base effect and a reduction in working days, with a month-on-month decline of 7.1% compared to a seasonal expectation of 3.2% [3][10][65] - Exports to emerging economies, such as ASEAN and Africa, have seen a notable slowdown, while demand from countries like Vietnam and Thailand has shown improvement [3][10][11] Import Analysis - October imports decreased by 6.4% year-on-year to 1%, reflecting supply disruptions, particularly in processing trade, which fell from 12% in September to 4.6% in October [4][23][66] - The surge in port freight volumes in late October indicates that supply disruptions are easing, with exports from countries like Vietnam and South Korea showing significant recovery [4][27][66] Future Outlook - With the easing of US-China trade tensions and the recovery of supply chains, November export growth is expected to rebound [5][67] - The differentiation in export performance to developed economies, particularly a recovery in exports to the US, suggests potential for continued growth in exports [5][67] Regular Tracking - In October, both exports and imports saw declines, with consumer electronics and light industrial products experiencing significant drops in export growth [6][68] - Capital goods exports showed mixed results, with general machinery and medical instruments declining, while shipbuilding exports increased [6][42][68] - Import growth for mechanical and electrical products and bulk commodities also decreased, with notable declines in automatic data processing equipment [6][54][68]