亚洲AI泡沫“初裂”？韩股给出了第一个危险信号

Core Viewpoint - The Korean stock market is signaling a potential peak in the AI investment frenzy, with the KOSPI index experiencing significant volatility and technical indicators showing severe overbought conditions [1][3][5]. Market Volatility - The KOSPI index has recently ended a period of low volatility and strong upward movement, now facing sharp declines and increased fluctuations [3]. - The index has dropped to its 21-day moving average, while the 50-day moving average remains significantly lower [3]. Technical Indicators - The relative strength index (RSI) on both weekly and monthly charts indicates extreme overbought levels, suggesting a potential market correction [5]. - A significant inversion in the volatility curve has emerged since late October, reflecting a collective investor chase for upward exposure, typically indicating excessive optimism and potential pullback risks [7]. Global AI Investment Trends - The KOSPI index shows a high correlation with U.S. AI stocks like NVIDIA and Palantir, indicating that global AI investments have become a highly interconnected trading theme [9]. Shift in Investment Focus - There has been a notable shift in Korean investors' focus since September, moving away from collapsing cryptocurrency trading volumes towards AI concept stocks [11]. - Data from Upbit shows a dramatic decline in cryptocurrency trading volume, while interest in SK Hynix has surged, surpassing that of Bitcoin, indicating a fundamental shift in investor interest [11]. Unique Position of the Korean Market - The Korean stock market is closely monitored due to its unique position in the global economy, with over 40% of its GDP derived from exports in key sectors like semiconductors, automotive, batteries, and displays [12]. - The market is highly cyclical, often reacting first to global PMI, trade volumes, and semiconductor prices [12]. - SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics' dominance in HBM and AI memory positions the Korean market as a real-time indicator of AI infrastructure development, making any unusual fluctuations in the KOSPI globally significant [12].