中金2026年展望 | 交运：关注行业红利股修复和反内卷机会（要点版）

Group 1: Core Views - The A-share transportation index has increased by 1% since early 2025, underperforming the market, primarily due to a pullback in infrastructure-related assets such as highways, railways, and ports [2] - For 2026, the focus is on three areas: 1) Rebound in pullback assets; 2) Growth opportunities in express logistics, particularly in response to anti-involution and technological penetration; 3) Structural opportunities in cycles, such as the supply-demand reversal in aviation and the demand for medium-sized container ships and VLCCs in shipping [2][3] Group 2: Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to test the results and sustainability of anti-involution, with direct express delivery potentially seeing a recovery. The growth rate for express delivery volume is projected to slow to around 10% in 2026, following a high base [4][5] - In the first nine months of 2025, express delivery volume grew by 17.2% year-on-year, driven by new consumption scenarios like live e-commerce and demand from central and western regions. However, growth rates have slowed since the third quarter [4] - The competitive landscape is influenced by market, regulatory, and platform factors, with regulatory changes being a key variable in 2025. The effectiveness of anti-involution measures is being observed, and the profitability of each segment in the express delivery chain needs to be maintained [4][5] Group 3: Road and Rail - Since June 2025, the highway index has underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the China Securities Dividend Index by 34.7 and 14.2 percentage points, respectively. However, the sector is now considered to have value for allocation after the pullback [8] Group 4: Shipping - The shipping sector presents structural market opportunities, particularly for small container ships and VLCCs, with ongoing geopolitical influences needing to be monitored. The average age of the global fleet indicates a supply tightness for smaller container ships [9][10] - The demand for compliant VLCCs is expected to rise due to OPEC's production increases, and geopolitical factors have continuously impacted the shipping market over the past five years [10] Group 5: Aviation - The supply-demand structure in the aviation industry is expected to gradually transition to balance or even a supply shortage, with ticket prices likely to increase. The annualized supply growth is projected at about 3%, while demand growth is expected to exceed 5% from 2026 onwards [11] - The industry is experiencing strong demand for private travel, and business travel is rebounding, providing further support for aviation demand growth. Engine issues may limit the growth of available aircraft in the coming years [11] Group 6: Airports - The operating leverage of airports is expected to gradually manifest as passenger traffic recovers, but the commercial logic of the airport sector remains to be observed. The growth in passenger volume is anticipated to return to single-digit normalization, with international routes showing relatively high growth [12] - The performance of non-aeronautical businesses at airports is expected to benefit from increased passenger traffic, but the stability of per capita spending, especially in duty-free shopping, remains uncertain [12]