中金研究 | 本周精选：宏观、策略、大类资产

Group 1 - The article discusses the new dynamics of the dual circulation model in the context of changing geopolitical conditions, emphasizing the importance of innovation and domestic demand to leverage China's scale economy advantages [5][7] - It highlights the recent trends in the macroeconomic environment, including the tightening of dollar liquidity and the Federal Reserve's plans to end quantitative tightening by December 2025, which may lead to a reintroduction of balance sheet expansion [7][9] - The article analyzes the movement of foreign capital, noting a divergence in investment patterns between Asia-Pacific and Europe-America, with a projected inflow of approximately 4500-6000 million HKD from public funds and insurance into the Hong Kong stock market [9][11] Group 2 - It points out the divergence between stock market performance and macroeconomic fundamentals, suggesting that increased risk appetite among investors may be a key driver of stock market support despite weak economic indicators [12][14] - The article outlines the long-term trends affecting global markets, including the restructuring of monetary order and the AI technology revolution, which are expected to influence asset performance in 2026 [14][16] - It concludes with a strategy recommendation to maintain an overweight position in Chinese stocks and gold while standardizing investments in U.S. stocks and bonds, anticipating potential shifts in economic indicators [14][16]