中金2026年展望 | 生物医药：创新主旋律，出海与商保破局（要点版）

Group 1: Innovation and Internationalization - The trend of innovation going abroad is clear, with pharmaceuticals leading the way and medical devices also expected to follow suit. The reform in drug approval continues to yield benefits, supported by domestic engineering talent, abundant clinical resources, and favorable policies, allowing Chinese innovative drugs to transition from imitation to FIC/BIC innovation [2][4][5] - Chinese innovative drugs are entering the international stage, with the industry moving from "import imitation" to "innovation output." The total amount of license-out transactions for Chinese pharmaceutical companies reached $40.8 billion in the first half of 2025, a 96% year-on-year increase, indicating a growing international competitiveness [5][10] - The medical device sector is also accelerating its international expansion, with overseas revenue growth outpacing total revenue growth, as companies enhance their global sales networks and product offerings [10][12] Group 2: Domestic Demand and Insurance Developments - Domestic demand is gradually improving after a period of weakness, with the impact of medical anti-corruption measures expected to ease by 2025. The introduction of policies to combat "involution" is reflected in the loosening price anchors for the first batch of generic drug procurement [11][12] - The development of commercial insurance is seen as a key factor in alleviating payment conflicts within the healthcare system. The push for a multi-tiered medical insurance system is gaining momentum, with commercial insurance expected to play a crucial role in expanding the domestic market [12][13] - The establishment of a commercial insurance directory for innovative drugs in 2025 is anticipated to enhance the payment capabilities for innovative products, supporting the balance between basic insurance and innovation [13] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Market Outlook - The "dumbbell strategy" for 2026 emphasizes a dual focus on technological advancement and traditional defensive sectors. The rapid development of AI in healthcare is highlighted, with the potential for significant advancements in the industry [3][14] - Traditional pharmaceutical companies are expected to experience a new cycle of high-quality development driven by state-owned enterprise reforms and technological innovation, making them a stable investment option amidst various market pressures [14]