中金2026年展望 | 基础材料：聚焦“反内卷”主线（要点版）

Group 1: Coal Industry - The overall coal price center is expected to slightly decline due to weak demand and constrained supply [4][2] - Domestic economic resilience and increased electrification support total energy demand, but renewable energy continues to marginally replace thermal coal demand [4][2] - Domestic coal production may gradually shrink due to the exit of old and exhausted capacities, while imports are unlikely to see significant increases [4][2] Group 2: Construction Materials - The demand for construction materials is expected to remain at a low point in 2026, with three main focus areas: (1) sub-sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" policies such as cement, waterproofing, and glass; (2) consumer building material manufacturers maintaining relative profitability through improved business models; (3) fiberglass manufacturers potentially exceeding expectations due to AI infrastructure investments [6][5] - Cement production is projected to decline to approximately 15.4 billion tons in 2026, with a capacity utilization rate of around 64%, significantly improving from 55% in 2025 [6][5] Group 3: Steel Industry - The steel industry is expected to see marginal improvements in supply and demand under "anti-involution" policies, with a slight decrease in crude steel production anticipated [11][10] - The core contradiction in steel demand is shifting from real estate to exports, with a slight decline in demand projected at 0.6% for 2026 [11][10] - The release of raw material supply cycles is expected to alleviate profit erosion, leading to a potential recovery in steel industry profitability [11][10] Group 4: Paper Industry - The expansion of paper production capacity is nearing its end, with demand expected to continue a mild recovery supported by consumption stimulus policies [13][12] - The supply side is experiencing a gradual recovery in capacity utilization, particularly in the boxboard segment, while other varieties may take longer to recover [13][12] - The paper industry is facing short and rapid price cycles due to intense competition between paper mills and pulp mills, impacting profitability [13][12]