中金2026年展望 | 油气化工：曙光已现，景气回暖（要点版）

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry has been in a downward cycle for over three years, with low chemical price indices and industry profit margins. The price index for Chinese chemical products has decreased by 10.3% from early 2025 to now, currently at the 10.6% percentile since 2012. The profit margin for chemical raw materials and products was only 4.14% from January to August 2025, the lowest since 2017. The gross and net profit margins for petrochemical companies in Q2 2025 were 16.05% and 4.63%, respectively, also at low levels in recent years [2][5][20]. Group 1: Industry Downturn and Recovery Potential - The chemical manufacturing industry has faced a downturn for over three years, with increasing midstream chemical production capacity and pressure on downstream demand, alongside falling prices of upstream commodities like oil and coal [2][5]. - Capital expenditures in the petrochemical sector have continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.3% in 2024 and 15.1% in the first half of 2025. The industry has seen a consistent decline in capital expenditures for seven consecutive quarters since Q4 2023 [3][9]. - The exit of overseas production capacity, particularly in Europe, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances. A total of 11 million tons of chemical production capacity is set to exit Europe between 2023 and October 2024 [3][9]. Group 2: Policy and Market Dynamics - The industry is experiencing a shift in policy aimed at controlling new refining capacity and managing the pace of new ethylene and PX production capacity to prevent overcapacity in coal-based methanol [3][10]. - The basic chemical sector's price-to-book ratio was 2.07x as of October 22, 2025, at the 32.6% percentile since 2012, indicating potential for long-term investment opportunities as favorable supply-side factors accumulate [3][20]. - The demand for bulk chemicals remains weak globally, but emerging manufacturing sectors related to AI, humanoid robots, and solid-state batteries are driving rapid growth in material demand [20][16].