中金2026年展望 | 有色金属：乘风破浪（要点版）

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal industry is expected to enter a bull market by 2026, driven by a combination of monetary easing, increasing demand, and supply constraints. The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts and the trend of de-dollarization are likely to enhance global liquidity and demand for physical assets like non-ferrous metals [2][4]. Monetary Factors - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to have significant room for interest rate cuts as the U.S. economy cools down, which may lead to a decline in real interest rates. This environment could foster inflationary pressures, supporting the bull market for gold [4][5]. - The trend of de-dollarization is expected to increase the demand for gold as a stable asset amid global monetary system uncertainties, potentially leading to unpredictable price movements for gold [4][5]. Demand Factors - The demand for non-ferrous metals is projected to accelerate due to the restructuring of global supply chains, the rise of emerging industries such as AI, electric power, and renewable energy, and the re-industrialization efforts in the U.S. and Europe [2][3]. - Specific sectors like clean energy, electric vehicles, and high-end manufacturing are expected to drive significant demand for metals like copper, aluminum, and tin [3][8]. Supply Factors - The non-ferrous metal industry faces supply constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade, leading to low supply elasticity. Additionally, geopolitical factors are increasing the control of resource-rich countries over strategic minerals, adding uncertainty to supply [2][3]. - The copper market is expected to experience a clear supply-demand shortage by 2026, driven by frequent supply disruptions and a decline in new production capacity [7][9]. Specific Metal Insights - Gold: The decline in real interest rates and de-dollarization trends are expected to drive gold prices higher, with central banks and financial institutions increasing their physical gold holdings [4][5]. - Copper: The copper market is projected to face a significant supply-demand gap, with demand from clean energy and electric power sectors expected to grow substantially [7][9]. - Aluminum: The aluminum sector is likely to enter a bull market due to tightening supply and recovering demand from various industries, including construction and electric vehicles [10]. - Tin: The tin market is expected to benefit from rising demand in the semiconductor industry and supply disruptions in key producing regions [11]. - Cobalt: Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to tightening supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo and increasing demand from battery technologies [13][14]. - Lithium: The lithium market may experience a downward trend in prices due to oversupply, despite short-term demand support from the battery sector [15][16]. - Uranium: Uranium prices are expected to recover due to limited supply and increased interest from investment funds [17]. - Tungsten: The tungsten market is likely to remain tight, supporting higher prices due to strong demand from emerging industries [18][19]. - Rare Earths: The demand for rare earth elements is projected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and the need for high-performance materials [20][21].