中金2026年展望 | 风光公用环保：电力供需偏松重高质量发展，风光盈利修复储能迎高增（要点版）

Power Industry - The power demand is expected to maintain a steady growth of 5% to 6% in 2026, driven by stable macroeconomic development and new growth drivers, while the supply-demand balance remains loose, leading to a downward trend in grid electricity prices, with pressure shifting from South China to East China [4][5] - New energy investment is projected to decline from the 2025 peak, with an expected new installed capacity of 250 to 300 GW in 2026, focusing on large bases and offshore wind power, while the industry structure is likely to concentrate further towards state-owned enterprises [4][5] - The recommended investment order based on sector trends and investor risk preferences is as follows: waste-to-energy > nuclear power > thermal power > new energy [5] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is facing temporary pressure on demand growth, with a projected global new installed capacity growth of approximately -10%, but the overall profitability of the industry chain has bottomed out and is slightly recovering [2][9] - The industry is expected to achieve marginal improvements in supply-demand relationships and further price recovery in 2026, with polysilicon and integrated components likely to turn profitable, while auxiliary materials like glass and films may see a rebound in profitability [9][10] - Domestic energy storage is anticipated to reach an economic turning point, benefiting from the increase in wind and solar installations, with significant investment opportunities arising from both domestic and overseas demand [9][10] Wind Power - The outlook for new wind power installations in 2026 is optimistic, with expected new capacity of 120 to 130 GW, driven by rising wind turbine prices, a recovery in offshore wind, and expansion in export directions [3][12] - The profitability of the wind power industry chain is expected to improve significantly, with the wind turbine segment likely to see a rebound in profitability due to increased demand and higher prices [12][13] - The domestic offshore wind sector is projected to continue its recovery, with significant growth potential in 2026, particularly in the context of a low base from 2025 [12][13]