下周美国市场也不好过？天量美债发行潮来袭，恰逢关键流动性指标“告急”

Core Viewpoint - A significant wave of U.S. Treasury bond issuance is set to impact the market, coinciding with a decline in tech giants' market value and concerns over high valuations, weak economic signals, and declining consumer confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Upcoming Treasury Issuance - The U.S. Treasury plans to auction a total of $125 billion in various maturities next week, alongside an expected $40 billion in investment-grade corporate bonds [1][2]. - The issuance will occur in a compressed trading week due to the Veterans Day holiday, which will close the bond market on Tuesday [2]. - The Treasury aims to refinance maturing debt and raise approximately $26.8 billion in new funds from private investors [3]. Group 2: Market Liquidity Concerns - The upcoming bond issuance is particularly concerning given the already fragile liquidity environment in the U.S. financial system [7][8]. - Key liquidity indicators have shown signs of distress, indicating a growing liquidity crisis [8]. - The secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) surged by 22 basis points on October 31, marking the widest spread with the Federal Reserve's excess reserves rate since March 2020 [9]. Group 3: Causes of Liquidity Tightness - The root cause of the liquidity strain is the significant increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which has risen from approximately $300 billion to over $1 trillion since July due to cash withdrawals from the market [11]. - This liquidity withdrawal has led to the lowest level of bank reserves since early 2021 and a sharp decline in cash assets held by foreign commercial banks [13]. - Analysts suggest that the scale of liquidity withdrawal has a tightening effect comparable to multiple interest rate hikes [13]. Group 4: Potential Risks - Experts warn that the deterioration of funding conditions could lead to a self-reinforcing cycle of liquidity issues, potentially triggering a chain reaction similar to the 2019 repo crisis if key indicators continue to worsen [14].