怎么看央行购金越来越少？

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 74.09 million ounces by the end of October, indicating a long-term recognition of gold assets. However, the monthly gold purchases have decreased, with October's purchases being less than 1 ton, marking the lowest increase since the resumption of purchases in November 2024 [3][4]. Group 1: Central Bank's Gold Purchasing Strategy - The PBOC's continued purchases at gold prices near $4,000-$4,400 demonstrate that these levels are within an acceptable range for the bank, suggesting a long-term price center for gold has shifted from $3,500 to potentially above $4,000 [4]. - The gradual reduction in gold purchases reflects a cautious strategy by the PBOC, which tends to increase purchases when prices are low and decrease them as prices rise. This indicates that if gold prices experience unexpected adjustments, the PBOC is likely to increase purchases again, limiting downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - The reduced purchasing volume is seen as a tactical adjustment rather than a strategic shift, maintaining the long-term investment logic in gold [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The decrease in the PBOC's gold purchase increment suggests that short-term reliance on the central bank alone may not be sufficient to drive significant gold price increases, necessitating attention to other core factors such as global capital flows and ETF holdings [5]. - The market's attitude towards the PBOC's gold purchases has become more rational, indicating that as long as the purchasing actions continue, even at lower volumes, they will not be perceived as negative signals. Historical trends show that temporary halts in purchases lead to short-term volatility but do not alter the long-term trend [5]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term trends and core driving factors rather than short-term fluctuations in purchase volumes, while also considering market volatility as an opportunity for tactical adjustments to enhance returns [5].