硅片，冷热不均

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry remains vibrant under the influence of AI, but the upstream wafer manufacturing materials segment is showing signs of oversupply, particularly in the 200mm and 300mm wafer markets, indicating a structural demand shift rather than a full recovery [2][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The global silicon wafer market is experiencing a supply surplus of approximately 5% to 10%, with 12-inch wafer demand remaining resilient, while 8-inch and 6-inch wafer utilization rates have dropped below 80% and 70%, respectively [2]. - The overall silicon wafer shipment is projected to grow by 3.1% year-on-year in Q3 2025, reaching 3.313 billion square inches, although it shows a 0.4% decline compared to the previous quarter [2]. - The demand for 300mm wafers is recovering, while 200mm wafer demand remains weak, with expectations of continued inventory adjustments in the automotive sector [5][6]. Group 2: Company Performance - Shin-Etsu Chemical reported a 22% decline in revenue and a 12% drop in net profit for the first half of the fiscal year ending September 30, 2025, indicating pressure on overall profitability due to market conditions [5]. - The company noted that 300mm wafer demand hit a low in Q1 2025 but has been on a recovery path since Q2, with stable orders expected in Q4 2025 [6]. Group 3: Technological Trends - The 12-inch silicon wafer has become the industry standard, accounting for over 70% of global shipments in 2023, with expectations of monthly demand exceeding 10 million pieces by 2026 [10][12]. - The production process for silicon wafers includes multiple stages, and larger wafers yield more chips per unit, leading to lower average manufacturing costs [10][11]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The global 12-inch silicon wafer market is highly concentrated, with five major players—Shin-Etsu, SUMCO, GlobalWafers, Siltronic, and SK Siltron—holding over 85% of the market share [13][14]. - Domestic competition in China is emerging, with several companies ramping up production capabilities, although the industry still relies heavily on imports for high-end wafers [18][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The demand for silicon wafers is expected to align with the growth of AI applications, with significant room for expansion in the 300mm wafer segment, which currently accounts for less than 10% of AI semiconductor shipments [6][12]. - The domestic silicon wafer production capacity is projected to increase significantly, potentially meeting 40% of China's 12-inch wafer demand by 2026 [21][23].