【广发宏观郭磊】如何看10月通胀数据及其影响链条

Core Viewpoint - The inflation data for October shows continued improvement, with CPI at 0.2% year-on-year, slightly above the model prediction of 0.16%, and PPI at -2.1%, better than the predicted -2.37% [1][6]. Inflation Data Summary - CPI and PPI data indicate a positive trend, with CPI showing a year-on-year increase of 0.2% and PPI at -2.1% [5][6]. - The simulated deflation index, based on CPI and PPI, stands at -0.72%, the highest since September of the previous year, excluding January [1][5]. - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has expanded for six consecutive months, reaching 1.2% year-on-year in October, the highest since March 2024 [8][9]. Price Trends in Specific Categories - Notable price trends include: - Pork prices continue to decline, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.5% [11]. - Alcohol prices also fell by 0.1% month-on-month [11]. - Household appliance prices broke a three-month upward trend, decreasing by 0.7% month-on-month [11]. - Gold jewelry prices surged by 10.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 50.3% [11][13]. - Medical service prices rose by 2.4% year-on-year, indicating a relatively high growth rate within CPI components [14]. Industrial Price Movements - Industrial prices show mixed trends: - Upstream production materials increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with mining industries up by 1.0% [15]. - Downstream consumer goods remained flat, with general daily necessities up by 0.7% [15]. - Durable goods, including automobiles and home appliances, saw a month-on-month decline of 0.3% [15][18]. Sector-Specific Insights - In specific sectors: - Upstream coal and non-ferrous metals experienced significant month-on-month increases [18]. - Midstream fuel processing and chemical industries faced declines, influenced by oil prices [18]. - Downstream automotive manufacturing showed a narrowing decline, while agricultural processing expanded its negative growth [18][19]. - Cement prices increased significantly due to policy-driven financial tools and the implementation of the revised Anti-Unfair Competition Law [21]. Future Price Trends - Looking ahead, pork prices are expected to stabilize, which may lead to a continued rebound in CPI year-on-year [21]. - The PPI base is slightly higher, with global pricing products presenting uncertainties; however, the cement price trend suggests a potential floor for construction product prices [21]. - Overall, the deflation index is anticipated to continue rising in the coming months, reflecting supply-demand dynamics that influence corporate profit margins and performance [21][4].