KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) 商业洞察·2025-11-09 09:26Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in the price of Moutai liquor during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, highlighting the impact of e-commerce subsidies and changing consumer behavior on the high-end liquor market [4][10][11]. Price Trends - Moutai's wholesale price has been decreasing rapidly, with the price dropping from 1730 RMB per bottle on October 23 to around 1640 RMB by November 6 [11]. - The retail price on various platforms has also seen a decline, with some prices reaching as low as 1499 RMB, which is below the psychological threshold for consumers [4][11]. Market Performance - The liquor sector has been labeled as "old and declining," with Moutai being a significant player that has struggled to maintain market confidence, evidenced by a four-year decline since its peak in 2021 [7][9]. - The overall performance of the liquor sector has been poor, with Moutai's revenue growth slowing to nearly zero, achieving only a 0.35% increase in total revenue year-on-year for Q3 2025 [35]. Consumer Behavior Changes - The article notes a shift in consumer behavior, particularly among younger generations who are less inclined to engage in traditional social drinking scenarios, which has contributed to the decline in high-end liquor sales [18][23]. - The perception of Moutai as a "social currency" is diminishing, as economic growth is increasingly driven by technology and innovation rather than real estate [16][17]. Channel Strategy Adjustments - Moutai has been focusing on direct sales channels, which saw a significant increase in revenue, reaching 223.74 billion RMB in 2023, up 88.29% from the previous year [28]. - However, the company is now balancing its direct sales and wholesale channels, with a notable increase in the number of domestic distributors, indicating a strategic shift to stabilize the market [29][33]. Recent Developments - Moutai announced a share buyback plan of 15 to 30 billion RMB and a mid-term dividend of 300.01 billion RMB, which is expected to enhance shareholder value [42][43]. - The company is undergoing leadership changes, with a new chairman expected to bring fresh strategies to navigate the current market challenges [40][46].