非农“没了”，下周的美国CPI也要“没了”，美联储12月还能“闭眼降息”吗？

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown is causing significant delays in the release of key economic data, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for the upcoming December meeting [1][2][5]. Group 1: Economic Data Delays - The release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at risk of being completely abandoned due to the shutdown, which has also delayed two monthly employment reports [1][2]. - The absence of official inflation and employment data will prolong and complicate the Federal Reserve's internal debates regarding the necessity of another rate cut in December [2][5]. Group 2: Impact on Federal Reserve Decisions - Despite market expectations leaning towards a rate cut in December, the lack of official data may provide policymakers concerned about inflation a valid reason to maintain current rates [3][5]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is not guaranteed, especially for members focused on the risks of rising inflation [5]. Group 3: Alternative Indicators - In the absence of official data, some private sector employment reports are helping to fill the gaps, but alternative indicators for inflation are harder to obtain and less comprehensive [7]. - The Cleveland Fed's "nowcast" model suggests that the year-over-year increase in October CPI may be similar to September's lower-than-expected 3% [8]. Group 4: Future Scenarios - Various scenarios have been proposed regarding the potential recovery of data and its implications for policy decisions: - Scenario 1: If only a "stale" September employment report is available before the December meeting, it is unlikely to convince Powell to pause rate cuts [10]. - Scenario 2: If both September and October employment reports are released, and the unemployment rate remains stable at 4.3%, a pause in rate cuts becomes a possibility [11]. - Scenario 3: If three complete employment reports are available, with November's unemployment rate at or below 4.3%, the Fed may maintain rates; if above 4.5%, a cut is likely [11].