2026出口初窥之“三分法”：量为核心，价随量动，份额风险降低——10月进出口数据点评

Core Viewpoints - In October, China's exports unexpectedly turned negative with a year-on-year decline of -1.1%, significantly below Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 3% and down from 8.3% in September. Imports also fell short of expectations, growing only 1% compared to a forecast of 3.2% and a previous value of 7.4% [2][50]. Group 1: October Export Analysis - The unexpected negative export growth in October was influenced by base effects, with a two-year average year-on-year growth of 5.5%, close to September's 5.3%. The month-on-month export decline was -7.1%, nearing historical lows [4][7]. - Exports to the US showed marginal improvement, while exports to the EU indicated signs of weakness. The US exports were at a seasonal high for two consecutive months, while EU exports approached their lowest levels in the past decade [8][20]. - The decline in exports to the EU was notable, with a year-on-year drop to 1.4% in October from 14% in September, indicating a significant slowdown in demand [61][62]. Group 2: Outlook for Q4 Exports - For Q4, several factors are to be considered: a low base in November and a slightly higher base in December, with potential year-on-year growth rates of 4.3% and 0.4% respectively, leading to an overall Q4 export growth of approximately 1.2% [24][25]. - The reduction of the fentanyl tariff by the US on November 10 may stimulate exports to the US, as the tariff reduction narrows the tax rate gap with other regions [9][25]. - Leading indicators suggest that export growth may rebound in November and December, with the OECD composite leading indicators for G7 countries indicating a potential recovery [10][25]. Group 3: Insights for 2026 Exports - The analysis framework for understanding exports is based on the "volume, price, share" method, indicating that the core issue for exports is global trade volume, which can be tracked using a leading indicator system [5][41]. - The resilience of China's exports this year is attributed to global trade volume and maintaining market share through price adjustments. The export price growth has been lagging behind global trade price growth, indicating a reliance on relative price advantages [13][32]. - For next year, the risks to export share are expected to decrease due to the partial reduction of tariffs, and the overall export share may remain stable even if export prices recover [40][41].