数据点评 | 通胀回升的三大因素（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, compared to -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year [1][9] Factors Influencing Inflation - Factor One: The anti-involution effect has led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI is limited. In contrast, copper prices, which are less affected by anti-involution, saw a larger increase, contributing significantly to the PPI [2][10][60] - Factor Two: The CPI's rise above zero is attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution impact [2][17][61] - Factor Three: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core service CPI showed better performance than seasonal trends due to holiday travel [3][24][30][62] Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the anti-involution effect on downstream prices may take time to manifest. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, while non-food items like household appliances and communication tools saw a decline [5][40][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal expectations. However, rental prices remained weak compared to previous years [7][52][63]