国泰海通证券研究·2025-11-09 14:48Core Viewpoint - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the resonance of allocation power and performance elasticity, with a continued recommendation for comprehensive leading brokerages [1][2]. Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In the first three quarters of 2025, 42 listed brokerages achieved a total net profit attributable to shareholders of 169 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 62.4%. The main driver of performance improvement was the revenue increase from brokerage and proprietary trading businesses, with adjusted revenue (operating income minus other business costs) rising by 44.1% year-on-year to 416.5 billion yuan. The net profit margin attributable to shareholders increased by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year to 41% [1]. - On a quarterly basis, the adjusted revenue of listed brokerages in Q3 2025 increased by 27.2% quarter-on-quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 25.5% [1]. Business Segment Contributions - Analyzing the contribution of various business segments to adjusted revenue growth in the first three quarters, proprietary trading and brokerage businesses grew by 42% and 75% year-on-year, contributing 43% and 37% to net revenue growth, respectively. The improvement in proprietary trading was mainly due to the recovery of stock derivatives and equity businesses, as well as the realization of floating profits from OCI bonds [1]. - In other business areas, the investment banking sector saw a year-on-year growth of 23% due to the recovery in equity financing, while asset management business experienced a slight increase, expected to benefit from the growth in management scale [1]. Differentiation Among Brokerages - There is significant differentiation in performance growth drivers among brokerages. Large and medium-sized brokerages benefit more from proprietary trading transformations, while small and medium-sized brokerages primarily rely on brokerage business. The analysis indicates that large and medium-sized brokerages have advantages in the context of investment banking and asset management transformations, achieving positive revenue contributions, while small and medium-sized brokerages face more pressure [2]. - The transformation of proprietary trading has become a key issue in the industry, with differences in business models, transformation processes, and investment trading capabilities among brokerages leading to operational differentiation [2]. Investment Recommendations - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the dual drivers of allocation power (including the entry of resident funds) and performance improvement, with a positive outlook for the non-bank sector market. The continued recommendation for the brokerage sector is based on the high growth of Q3 performance and the anticipated gradual release of future performance [2].