美股IPO·2025-11-10 11:23Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the third quarter profits of Chinese internet giants will decline by 31% year-on-year due to massive investments in "instant retail," marking the largest drop of the year. Tencent is expected to be the only company to achieve profit growth during this period [1][3]. Group 1: Profit Decline and Market Focus - The upcoming earnings reports will reveal a harsh reality, with aggressive investments in "instant retail" severely eroding profits, leading to a second consecutive quarter of profit decline for the sector [3][4]. - The focus of the market has shifted from current profit figures to management's guidance on investment intensity for the fourth quarter and the path to narrowing losses by 2026 [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Impact of AI and Capital Expenditure - AI is a central theme in this quarter's reports, with cloud revenue growth being a bright spot, driven by strong AI demand. Alibaba's cloud revenue is expected to grow from 26% to 31% year-on-year [5]. - However, massive capital expenditures to support AI infrastructure are expected to dilute short-term profits, with Alibaba's projected capital expenditure for 2026-2028 reaching 460 billion RMB, exceeding previous targets [5][6]. Group 3: Instant Retail Losses - Instant retail is identified as the primary factor dragging down profits this quarter, with losses expected to peak in Q3. Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com are projected to incur losses of 36 billion, 20 billion, and 13 billion RMB, respectively [6]. - Although losses are expected to narrow in Q4, achieving a 50% reduction in losses remains unlikely at this stage, raising concerns among investors about the sustainability of these investments [6].