高盛直接将闪迪目标价翻倍！NAND供不应求将极大推动定价能力和利润率增长

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has raised the target price for SanDisk to $280, citing a persistent supply-demand imbalance in the NAND flash memory market that is expected to last until 2026, granting manufacturers significant pricing power and leading to a surge in profit margins [1][3][5]. Financial Performance - SanDisk's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue reaching $2.31 billion, surpassing Goldman Sachs' forecast of $2.21 billion and the market's expectation of $2.17 billion [7]. - The gross margin was reported at 29.9%, higher than the market expectation of 29.3% [8]. - Non-GAAP EPS was $1.22, significantly exceeding the market expectation of $0.90, representing a 35.6% increase [8]. Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, SanDisk's revenue guidance is set at a midpoint of $2.6 billion, compared to the market expectation of $2.37 billion [9]. - The gross margin guidance is projected at 42.0%, well above the previous quarter's 29.9% and the market expectation of 33.5%, indicating an increase of 850 basis points [9]. - Non-GAAP EPS guidance is set at $3.20, nearly 1.7 times the market expectation of $1.92 [9]. NAND Market Dynamics - The NAND flash memory market is experiencing a fundamental shift towards a sustained supply-demand imbalance, expected to last until 2026 [10][11]. - The demand for high-end memory products, driven by AI server requirements, has led to a prioritization of production capacity for these high-margin products, resulting in a shortage of NAND flash for consumer SSDs [11]. - Recent reports indicate that SanDisk has raised its NAND flash contract prices by 50% in November, with DRAM prices soaring by 171.8% year-on-year [11]. Profitability Outlook - The supply-demand imbalance translates into pricing power, which is expected to drive profit margins significantly higher [12]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its EPS forecasts for SanDisk by an average of 79% for the coming years, with 2025 EPS projected to increase from $2.88 to $4.86, a 69.2% rise [13]. - For 2026 and 2027, EPS forecasts have been raised to $19.00 and $23.25, reflecting increases of 83.6% and 85.0%, respectively [14][15]. Target Price Adjustment - Based on the optimistic outlook, Goldman Sachs has doubled its target price for SanDisk from $140 to $280, supported by significant adjustments in earnings forecasts and valuation multiples [17]. - The normalized EPS used for valuation has been increased from $7.80 to $14.00, and the P/E ratio applied to SanDisk has been raised from 18x to 20x [17]. Investment Rating - Given the substantial upside potential relative to market expectations, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for SanDisk [19].