【笔记20251110— 债市已成“路人甲”？】

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting its perceived decline in importance compared to the stock market, especially in light of recent economic data and market reactions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.805% after opening at 1.81% [5][6]. - Recent inflation data for October was slightly above expectations, contributing to a cautious sentiment in the bond market [5][6]. - The stock market showed mixed reactions, initially declining but later recovering as news of a potential end to the government shutdown emerged [5][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 119.9 billion yuan, with a net injection of 41.6 billion yuan after 78.3 billion yuan matured [3]. - The liquidity in the market is tightening, with the DR001 and DR007 rates hovering around 1.48% and 1.50%, respectively [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo codes indicate a slight increase, with R001 at 1.52% and R007 at 1.50%, reflecting a mixed trend in the short-term funding market [4][9]. - The article notes a divergence in expectations for the 10-year government bond yield, with forecasts ranging from a lower bound of 1.2% to an upper bound of 2.1% [6].