港口集装箱吞吐量反弹——每周经济观察第45期

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic trends in China, highlighting both positive and negative indicators in various sectors, including service consumption, durable goods, exports, and real estate sales, while also addressing commodity prices and fiscal policies. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Service consumption shows recovery with metro passenger volume increasing by 7% year-on-year in early November, compared to a 0.8% increase in October [2] - Durable goods consumption, particularly passenger car retail, has rebounded significantly, with a 47% year-on-year increase from October 27 to 31, compared to a previous decline of 9% [2][16] - Export activity is improving, as evidenced by a 13.8% month-on-month increase in port container throughput as of November 2 [2][26] Group 2: Price Trends - Agricultural product prices are on the rise, with pork prices increasing by 2.4% and vegetable prices by 1.6% [3][41] - Domestic and international commodity prices are declining, with the South China index down by 0.5% and the RJ/CRB commodity price index also down by 0.5% [5][40] Group 3: Real Estate and Construction - Real estate sales are experiencing a significant downturn, with a 43% year-on-year decrease in residential sales in the first week of November, compared to a 26% decline in October [4][14] - Construction activity is slightly declining, with cement shipment rates at 37.1%, down 0.3% from the previous week [4][18] Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The Ministry of Finance announced the establishment of a debt management department to address new hidden debt behaviors and ensure accountability [46][47] - New local government bond issuance plans indicate a total of 151.9 billion yuan for the week of November 10, with a focus on special bonds [46] Group 5: Interest Rates and Funding - Bond yields have slightly increased, with one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bond yields reported at 1.4045%, 1.5873%, and 1.8142%, respectively, as of November 7 [6][60] - The funding rates are fluctuating, with DR001 at 1.3321% and DR007 at 1.4130% as of November 7 [60]