中国10月PPI环比年内首次上涨 ：申万期货早间评论-20251110

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) experienced its first month-on-month increase of the year, rising by 0.1% due to improved supply-demand dynamics in certain domestic industries and the transmission of international commodity prices [1][6]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 1.2%, marking the sixth consecutive month of growth [1][6]. - The PPI saw a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, but the rate of decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a continuous narrowing trend for three months [1][6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - In the futures market, the main contracts showed mixed results, with liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and pulp prices rising nearly 1%, while coking coal fell by nearly 2% [1]. - The European shipping index (SCFI) decreased by $21 per TEU week-on-week, reflecting a downward adjustment in freight rates, particularly from the PA alliance [2][25]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Trends - The steel industry is facing a demand downturn, with the profitability of steel mills dropping below 40%, leading to a continued decline in iron and steel production [3][19]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating demand from various sectors, including electric power and automotive industries [3][17]. Group 4: International and Domestic News - The U.S. government has been in a state of "shutdown" for 40 days, with potential economic growth for Q4 being halved if the situation persists [5]. - The World Internet Conference in Wuzhen attracted over 1,600 guests from more than 130 countries, showcasing advancements in AI and robotics [7].