大涨超7%！碳酸锂为何突然暴涨？

Market Overview - The lithium carbonate market has experienced significant volatility, with a notable price drop followed by a rebound, resulting in a 7.36% increase in futures prices as of November 10, closing at 87,240 [3][5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent price increase is driven by strong demand for lithium iron phosphate in the downstream battery and energy storage sectors, leading to supply tightness [5]. - In October, domestic lithium carbonate production reached 92,260 tons, marking a 6% month-on-month increase and a 55% year-on-year increase, with a cumulative production of 775,900 tons from January to October, up 43.17% year-on-year [7]. - The supply side faces uncertainties, particularly regarding the resumption of production at the Jiangxi Ganxian lithium mine, which is expected to be delayed, exacerbating supply concerns [8][9]. Price Trends - As of November 10, the average price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 81,000-82,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 2.53% increase, while battery-grade lithium carbonate averaged 83,500 yuan per ton, up 4.05% [7]. - The cost of lithium carbonate is supported by the rising prices of spodumene concentrate, which has reached 925 USD per ton, translating to a production cost of approximately 78,600 yuan per ton [14]. Inventory and Consumption - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory has been decreasing, with social inventory dropping to 125,000 tons, reflecting a continuous destocking trend since mid-August [12]. - The demand for lithium carbonate remains robust, with October wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 1.61 million units, a 16% year-on-year increase [11]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates a continued strong demand for lithium carbonate, particularly driven by the energy storage sector, which is projected to see a 59.27% year-on-year growth in battery production by 2025 [11]. - The supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with forecasts indicating a supply shortfall of approximately 12,582 tons in October and 16,845 tons in November [17]. - The overall sentiment in the market is bullish, with expectations of price strength driven by strong demand and limited supply, although potential risks include the resumption of production at the Ganxian mine and fluctuations in demand [15][20].