储能增长逻辑分析--两部委最新储能政策解读

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of new energy consumption and regulation, with a focus on establishing a multi-level consumption regulation system by 2030 and a new power system by 2035 to support carbon peak goals [1][3]. New Energy and Storage - The document highlights new energy sectors, particularly wind and solar power, which are expected to see moderate growth rates due to established development targets from 2025 to 2035 [3]. - New energy storage is identified as a critical growth area, transitioning from a mere "auxiliary adjustment tool" to an essential infrastructure for high-quality new energy consumption, impacting various scenarios including centralized and distributed energy projects [3][5]. - The disparity between the distribution of new energy generation and consumption necessitates robust storage support to achieve the outlined consumption goals [3]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. energy market is experiencing a surge in demand for storage solutions due to regulatory changes, with all new solar projects required to enter market transactions starting January 1, 2026, leading to real demand for storage [5][6]. - In China, the current surge in installations is seen as a correction of historical underinvestment, with a conservative estimate suggesting a need for at least 2000 GWh of storage capacity to stabilize the power system [6][10]. Regional Profitability - Economic conditions for storage projects in Inner Mongolia have improved significantly due to policy changes and industry scaling, with market dynamics allowing for greater profitability through various revenue models [7][10]. - The profitability logic varies by region, with eastern provinces benefiting from significant peak-valley price differences, while western regions rely on capacity compensation [10][11]. Long-term Industry Outlook - The storage market is expected to grow at an annual installation rate of 40%-50% over the next five years, driven by inherent market demand rather than subsidies [10][13]. - The relationship between storage and new energy is characterized as a one-way support system, where storage provides flexibility and energy time-shifting capabilities to complement generation [12][13]. - The article concludes that the growth of the storage industry is essential for the energy transition, with storage becoming a critical component in stabilizing the grid as renewable energy sources expand [13].