站在人民币资产长牛的起点

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the end of the low inflation era in the West, highlighting that the inflation rate is unlikely to return to the previously accepted target of 2%, with a new normal around 3% becoming more probable [4][12]. Inflation Dynamics - The average hotel prices in the U.S. have increased by approximately 20% from 2019 to 2024, with significant price hikes in major cities and high-end hotels [3]. - Food prices have also risen, with typical fast food meals increasing from $15-$18 to over $20, and dinner costs rising from around $60 to $80-$100 [3]. - The inflation rate surged from 2% to between 7% and 9% due to supply chain disruptions, soaring energy prices, and expansive fiscal and monetary policies during the pandemic [4]. Structural Changes in Inflation - The previous low inflation era was largely driven by globalization, which allowed for cost reductions through outsourcing and just-in-time production [4]. - Current trends emphasize supply chain resilience and localization, leading to increased costs as companies build redundancy into their operations [5]. - The transition to green energy and carbon neutrality is creating a long-term capital expenditure cycle, further raising cost structures [5][6]. Labor Market and Cost Pressures - Population aging and labor market constraints are limiting the potential for increased labor participation, leading to upward pressure on wages [6]. - The service sector is experiencing slow recovery, making it difficult to revert to pre-pandemic pricing levels [6]. - Wage stickiness means that even with tightened monetary policy, achieving a 2% inflation rate will be challenging [6]. Fiscal Policy and Inflation Targets - Post-pandemic, public debt and fiscal deficits in the West have increased, complicating the management of inflation and interest rates [7]. - The political landscape may lead to a tolerance for slightly higher inflation rates, with a practical target shifting towards 3% rather than the nominal 2% [8]. China's Role in Global Manufacturing - China is identified as a critical player in the global cost structure, contributing nearly 30% of global manufacturing value added [9]. - The country leads in advanced industries such as electric vehicles and renewable energy, maintaining a comprehensive manufacturing capability across various sectors [9][10]. - Despite some companies diversifying their supply chains, key components and intermediate goods still predominantly come from China, indicating its irreplaceable role in global manufacturing [11]. Investment Implications - In a higher inflation environment, global capital will increasingly favor assets linked to real industrial capabilities and efficient supply chains [12]. - Companies involved in new energy, advanced manufacturing, and critical materials are likely to attract more investment as they possess stable demand and pricing power [12].