国泰海通证券研究·2025-11-10 15:07Group 1: Core Insights - The U.S. Senate's failure to pass a temporary funding bill has led to a historic government shutdown, impacting employment and inflation data, which may increase market volatility regarding Federal Reserve rate cut expectations [1] - The upcoming U.S. inflation data release is crucial, as the delay in data publication could disrupt market expectations [4] Group 2: Global Asset Performance - In the week of October 31 to November 7, 2025, commodity prices mostly declined, while stock market performance was mixed, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.29% and the S&P 500 falling by 1.63% [2] - The bond market saw a slight decline, with the domestic 10Y government bond futures price dropping by 0.22% [2] Group 3: Economic Overview - In the U.S., economic indicators show a marginal downturn, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI falling below the growth threshold and consumer confidence continuing to decline [3] - In Europe, economic conditions are improving, with increases in industrial production indices for Germany and France [3] Group 4: Policy Implications - The data vacuum in the U.S. is exacerbating volatility in Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, with some institutions becoming more hawkish regarding December rate cut predictions [4] - The European Central Bank is maintaining stable monetary policy while monitoring global trade tensions and geopolitical risks [4]