有，但可能没有那么强——AI对美国经济贡献的思辩

Group 1 - The article discusses the contribution of AI to the US economy, suggesting that by the first half of 2025, AI's impact on GDP growth may be comparable to that of consumer spending, with AI contributing approximately half of the GDP growth [2][9]. - In the first half of 2025, AI-related investments are estimated to contribute about 1% to GDP growth, which is similar to the 1.1% contribution from consumer spending [3][10]. - However, the actual contribution of AI investments may be overstated due to the significant impact of imported capital goods, leading to a revised estimate of only 0.2% contribution to GDP growth when net imports are excluded [4][12]. Group 2 - The article compares the current AI investment wave to the internet investment wave of the early 2000s, noting that during the internet boom, computer investments contributed approximately 11% to 18% to GDP growth, while the current AI investment's contribution is only about 9% when adjusted for imports [5][17]. - The contribution of AI-related investments to GDP growth in the first half of 2025 is estimated at 0.96%, with a net contribution of 0.19% after excluding capital goods imports [17][18]. - Despite the current limitations, there is an expectation for continued growth in AI investments, with major US AI companies projected to increase capital expenditures significantly, leading to an estimated 10% and 9% growth in AI-related investments for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][18]. Group 3 - The article includes observations on overseas economic data, highlighting that the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 48.7 in October, below expectations, while the non-manufacturing PMI was at 52.4, exceeding expectations [23]. - It notes that global flight numbers have increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 13.6% as of November 7 [30]. - The article also mentions a slight increase in US mortgage rates, with the 30-year mortgage rate rising to 6.22% [33].