中金2026年展望 | 港资房企：关注板块二次上行机遇

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market has shown signs of stabilization and recovery since the second quarter of this year, with expectations for further deepening of the recovery due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve [2][5]. Market Outlook - The main factors influencing the market will be the interest rate levels, with a high probability of continued rate cuts into 2026. The local housing demand release is crucial for further recovery, with mortgage rates being a significant variable [5][9]. - Since the peak in 2021, Hong Kong property prices have adjusted approximately 29% by the second quarter of 2025, indicating a substantial correction. The market has shown a trend of month-on-month improvement since June, with total monthly housing transactions stabilizing around 5,000 units [9][10]. Recovery Dynamics - A moderate recovery is the baseline expectation, but potential upward risks should be monitored. The ideal inventory turnover period is estimated to return to around two years within the next 12 months [10][11]. - Key catalysts for demand include accelerated overseas capital inflow, significant US dollar interest rate cuts, and further inflow of mainland capital [11][12]. Sector Analysis - The residential and retail markets are recovering more rapidly than the office sector. The retail market has shown positive changes since May, with supply-demand dynamics becoming more balanced [6][58]. - The office market, while showing some positive demand signals, still faces high vacancy rates, particularly in non-core areas, and is expected to lag in recovery [6][58]. Long-term Positioning - The valuation of Hong Kong real estate stocks remains low compared to historical extremes, suggesting potential for further recovery. The current market valuation is around the historical tenth percentile, indicating it is not overly high [5][11]. - The long-term return characteristics of Hong Kong real estate stocks show an average annual compound return of slightly above 8%, with dividends contributing significantly to total returns [51][52]. Retail and Office Market Trends - The retail property sector is expected to recover sooner than the office sector due to healthier supply-demand dynamics, with retail vacancy rates at historical lows [58][59]. - The office market faces challenges with rising vacancy rates and anticipated supply increases, which may exert downward pressure on rental rates [59][62].