中金2026年展望 | 全球：跟随信用扩张的方向

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that the direction of credit expansion is a key determinant of asset performance in global markets, with assets in credit expansion areas performing better than those in credit contraction areas [2][16]. Group 1: Global Market Trends - By early 2025, the rise of China's DeepSeek initiated a revaluation of core technology assets, impacting both Chinese and U.S. AI industries, leading to concerns about over-investment [3][72]. - In February, expectations of fiscal and military expansion in Europe contrasted with U.S. spending cuts, resulting in a significant rise in European assets [3][16]. - By April, tariff negotiations raised doubts about the sustainability of U.S. debt and dollar credit expansion, leading to a decline in U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar [3][16]. Group 2: U.S. Credit Cycle - The U.S. credit cycle is expected to gradually recover and may even reach "overheating" conditions, driven by strong AI investments and fiscal expansion [5][27]. - The "Big Beautiful" Act is projected to increase annual spending by approximately $340 billion, raising the deficit rate from 5.9% to 6.4% [6][45]. - Traditional demand is anticipated to improve slightly as high financing costs ease, with potential for a recovery in real estate and manufacturing sectors [50][66]. Group 3: China’s Credit Cycle - China's credit cycle, after a year of recovery, faces challenges due to high bases, slowing policy support, and structural issues, potentially leading to stagnation or decline [8][72]. - AI investments are expected to continue, but traditional demand in sectors like real estate and consumption may weaken due to declining income expectations [9][72]. - The fiscal response is limited, with a need for significant new debt to maintain credit cycle growth, which may not be feasible [9][72]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should align with credit expansion directions, favoring U.S. assets over Japan and Europe, while focusing on structural opportunities in China [11][12]. - The S&P 500 index is projected to have a potential upside of 13-16%, reaching levels between 7600 and 7800 points [7][12]. - In the Chinese market, a focus on sectors with structural growth, such as AI and technology, is recommended, while traditional sectors may face headwinds [10][12].