中金2026年展望 | 东南亚策略：降息潮起，周期焕新

Macroeconomic Overview of Southeast Asia - Southeast Asia faces dual pressures from the US "reciprocal tariffs" and the opening of a "zero-tariff door" by the US, leading to a reduction in export competitiveness due to an average tariff of 19-20% on goods exported to the US [2][7] - Despite these challenges, the average economic growth rate for Southeast Asia is projected to be 4.2% in 2026, outperforming the global average of 2.9% [2][7] - Individual GDP growth rates for 2026 are expected to be 7.0% for Vietnam, 5.7% for the Philippines, 4.9% for Indonesia, 4.2% for Malaysia, and 1.8% for both Singapore and Thailand [2][7] Investment Themes in Southeast Asia - A low-interest-rate environment is anticipated, benefiting the real estate sector and other capital-intensive industries, with policy rates in various countries reduced significantly [3] - The effective tax rate advantage for ASEAN countries is expanding, with an average effective tax rate of 15%, compared to 43% for China, which may benefit local industries and logistics [4] - Geopolitical tensions are expected to drive growth in sectors such as AI, data centers, and mining, particularly in Malaysia and Singapore, which have strong semiconductor and electronic manufacturing capabilities [5] Country-Specific Investment Strategies - Vietnam: Plans to achieve double-digit GDP growth by 2026, focusing on infrastructure and real estate investments, and aims to establish financial hubs [11] - Indonesia: Facing internal challenges but has plans for significant economic reforms and investments in public housing and resource integration [12] - Malaysia: The government is focusing on high-value industries like semiconductors and AI, aiming to enhance its position in global supply chains [13] - Singapore: Expected to benefit from a stable political environment and low-interest rates, with potential growth in construction and REITs [14] - Thailand: Internal conflicts and policy uncertainties may hinder economic performance, despite potential benefits from foreign capital [14] - Philippines: Faces challenges from stalled infrastructure projects and competition from AI, which may impact economic growth [14] Trade and Foreign Investment Dynamics - Southeast Asia is adapting to new trade dynamics due to high tariffs, with countries seeking to establish new trade relationships to mitigate risks from US tariffs [16] - The region has seen a diversification of foreign direct investment sources, with a notable decrease in US investment and an increase from ASEAN countries [28] - The manufacturing supply chain in Southeast Asia is evolving, with significant greenfield investments in sectors like automotive and machinery [24] Capital Market Trends - Southeast Asian equity markets have shown resilience, with Vietnam leading in performance, while other countries like Malaysia and Thailand face challenges due to internal issues [29] - The region's liquidity remains strong, but foreign institutional investors have been net sellers, indicating a shift in investment preferences towards fixed-income assets [33]