市场“大事件”：特朗普首次明确“关税返还”具体金额，每人2000美元重现“疫情支票”？

Core Viewpoint - Trump's "tariff refund" plan could cost up to $600 billion, significantly exceeding the expected tariff revenue of approximately $300 billion, raising concerns about potential inflation similar to that seen during pandemic stimulus measures [1][4][5] Group 1: Financial Implications - The proposed plan suggests distributing $2,000 to American citizens from tariff revenues, with remaining funds aimed at significantly reducing national debt [2][5] - The total cost of the "dividend" plan, if designed similarly to pandemic payments, is estimated at $600 billion, far surpassing the U.S. government's tariff revenue capabilities, which totaled $195 billion for the fiscal year ending in September [4][7] - Current U.S. tariff revenues are being utilized to limit the scale of fiscal deficits, with the national debt nearing $20 trillion and the last annual surplus occurring over 20 years ago [7] Group 2: Economic Risks and Criticism - Economists, including Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, criticize the plan as irresponsible, especially given the increasing government debt [5][6] - The proposal evokes memories of pandemic-era stimulus checks, which some economists argue contributed to severe inflation between 2021 and 2022 [3][6] Group 3: Legal and Legislative Considerations - The legality of Trump's tariff imposition is currently under review by the U.S. Supreme Court, which could impact the feasibility of the proposed refund plan [8][9] - If tariffs are deemed invalid, it may take seven years for the government to gather sufficient revenue to fund the proposed "dividend checks" [9] - Treasury Secretary Becerra hinted that the $2,000 "dividend" might be implemented as tax reductions rather than direct cash payments, indicating uncertainty about the proposal's final form [11][12]