“申”度解盘 | 财报落地、蓄势来年

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in the A-share market, highlighting a recovery in profit growth for listed companies, expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and changes in market dynamics indicating a shift towards a more cautious investment environment [6][11][12]. Group 1: Profit Growth of Listed Companies - The profit growth of A-share listed companies has turned positive after a prolonged period of decline, with a non-financial and "three barrels of oil" adjusted net profit growth rate of 7.0% in Q1 2023, followed by low single-digit growth in the subsequent quarters [6][11]. - The expectation is for continued low positive growth in Q4 2023, aided by a lower comparative base in 2024 [11]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 63.00%, down from 91.70% a week prior, indicating internal disagreements within the committee [12]. - Despite the decrease in probability, a rate cut remains a likely event, which may still influence market risk appetite [12]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Risk Preferences - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index showed a slight recovery to 5.70 at the end of September, interrupting a downward trend that had persisted since April, suggesting a slight decline in investor risk appetite [7][15]. - The number of stocks with over 20% gains in October 2025 dropped to 237, a 41% decrease from the previous month, indicating a significant reduction in market risk appetite and a return to a sideways market structure [18]. Group 4: Market Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index faced resistance after attempting to break out of a trading range in October, suggesting the need for further market consolidation [20]. - The CSI 300 index experienced volatility, with significant technical resistance at levels established during the second half of 2021, while key support levels are identified at the 2016 and 2020 lows [24].