美股IPO·2025-11-11 04:48Core Viewpoint - Citigroup expects Nvidia's upcoming earnings report on November 19 to exceed revenue expectations and raise guidance, maintaining a "Buy" rating and raising the target price to $220 [1][2] Group 1: Earnings Expectations - Citigroup predicts Nvidia's sales for the quarter ending in October will reach $57 billion, surpassing the market average expectation of approximately $55 billion [4] - For the January quarter, Citigroup anticipates Nvidia's sales guidance will be $62 billion, also above the market expectation of around $61 billion [5] - The report indicates that Nvidia's data center sales are expected to grow by 24% and 12% in the October and January quarters, respectively, compared to market expectations of 19% and 15% [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Citigroup refutes the notion of an "AI bubble," arguing that the main issue in the AI chip market is supply constraints rather than weak demand, with AI supply expected to remain below demand until 2026 [10] - The report highlights that large cloud service providers' revenues are projected to show a turning point starting in 2025, driven by the adoption of enterprise-level AI applications [10] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - Citigroup has raised Nvidia's target price to $220 based on a projected EPS of $7.24 for the 2026 calendar year, applying a 30x price-to-earnings ratio [11] - The EPS forecasts for Nvidia for the fiscal years 2026, 2027, and 2028 have been increased by 2%, 7%, and 8%, respectively, to align with the revised global AI capital expenditure model [11] Group 4: AI Semiconductor Market Outlook - Citigroup has significantly raised its forecast for the global data center semiconductor market, predicting it will reach $654 billion by 2028, up 16% from the previous estimate of $563 billion [12] - The upward revision is attributed to higher-than-expected demand from key AI players like OpenAI [12]