市场“大事件”：特朗普首次明确“关税返还”具体金额，每人2000美元重现“疫情支票”？

Core Viewpoint - Trump's proposal to distribute at least $2,000 to each American from tariff revenues raises concerns about economic risks similar to those experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic stimulus checks [1][3]. Group 1: Proposal Details - Trump announced that the tariff revenue would provide $2,000 to each American citizen, excluding high-income individuals, and the remaining funds would be used to significantly pay down national debt [2][3]. - The proposal is reminiscent of the pandemic-era stimulus checks, where Trump previously pushed for increasing the amount from $600 to $2,000 [3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - The estimated total cost of the proposed "dividend" plan could reach $600 billion if designed similarly to the pandemic payments [4]. - Current U.S. tariff net revenue was $195 billion as of September, with projections of approximately $300 billion for the calendar year 2025, indicating that the proposed payments exceed the government's tariff revenue capacity [5]. Group 3: Legislative and Economic Challenges - Trump has not clarified how the $2,000 payments would be implemented or whether legislative approval would be sought, with experts noting that congressional approval is necessary [6]. - The proposal faces significant challenges, as the U.S. has not seen a federal budget surplus in over 20 years, and the current deficit is nearly $2 trillion [7]. Group 4: Legal and Alternative Considerations - The legality of Trump's tariff imposition is under review by the Supreme Court, which could impact the feasibility of the proposed payments [8]. - If tariffs are deemed invalid, it could take seven years to accumulate enough revenue to fund the proposed payments [9]. - An alternative suggestion from the Treasury Secretary indicated that the $2,000 could be reflected in tax reductions rather than direct cash payments, although this remains uncertain [12][14].