热销项目 | 10月“好房子”去化居前但加速分化

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in October showed a general decline in transaction volume and supply, with a notable drop in the average sales rate across 30 key cities, indicating a cooling market trend [2][4]. Market Performance - The average sales rate for new homes in 30 key cities fell to 34% in October, down 6 percentage points month-on-month and 4 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen experienced a steady decline in market heat, with Guangzhou's sales rate dropping to 10% in October [4][5]. - Cities such as Suzhou, Hefei, and Nanjing showed signs of weak recovery, with month-on-month increases in sales rates, while cities like Fuzhou and Qingdao remained sluggish with sales rates below 20% [4]. Project Characteristics - High-quality projects with strong product features, particularly those aligned with government initiatives for safe and comfortable housing, have been performing well [8]. - In Wuhan, new projects accounted for 90% of the launches in October, achieving a first-day sales rate of 32%, compared to just 6% for older projects [8]. - Notable high-performing projects include Tianjin Longyao City Fengming and Chengdu Dongcheng Jinmao Xiaomao, both achieving 100% sales rates [9]. Market Segmentation - There is increasing differentiation among projects, with some achieving high sales rates while others struggle. For example, in Guangzhou, new projects saw a drop in sales rates from 25% in September to 10% in October [11]. - Specific projects in the same district can have vastly different sales performances, highlighting the importance of timing and marketing strategies [13]. Impact of Amenities - Strong supporting facilities, particularly educational resources, have become crucial in driving sales, with school district properties seeing significant demand [17][21]. - Projects like Tianjin Jiantou Aoti and Changsha Zhongjian Boci have leveraged their prime locations and amenities to achieve high sales rates [21]. Pricing Strategies - In weaker markets, some projects have resorted to price reductions and promotional strategies to boost sales. For instance, in Xi'an, discounts were increased to stimulate demand [22]. - In Suzhou, many top-selling projects were driven by high cost-performance ratios or aggressive pricing strategies [22]. Future Outlook - The expectation for November indicates continued low transaction volumes, with potential further declines in sales rates due to high comparative bases from last year [26]. - Differentiation among cities and projects is expected to persist, with core cities facing downward pressure while some second-tier cities may continue to show signs of recovery [26].