读研报 | CPI转正，哪些情况值得关注？

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, marking a recovery from the previous value of -0.3% [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest increase since March 2024, indicating a sustained upward trend for six consecutive months [2] - Key factors contributing to the improvement in price data include better food prices, rising gold prices, and robust travel consumption during the holiday season [2] Food Prices and Consumer Behavior - Food prices showed a notable improvement, with actual prices rising by 0.3% in October, contrary to the expected decline of 0.4% based on high-frequency wholesale prices [2] - The increase in gold jewelry prices contributed approximately 0.06 percentage points to the month-on-month CPI [2] - The demand for travel during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival led to significant price increases in accommodation (8.6%), air tickets (4.5%), and tourism (2.5%) [2] Weakness in Certain Price Segments - Despite the overall CPI recovery, certain segments like pork and tobacco prices remain weak, with pork prices declining by 2.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI by approximately 0.03 percentage points [4] - Tobacco and alcohol prices also experienced negative growth, both decreasing by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting limited demand for non-essential consumer goods due to unhealed consumer sentiment [4] Durable Goods Demand - Reports indicate that the demand for durable consumer goods is not strong, with transportation tools showing a consistent year-on-year decline of 1.9% for three consecutive months [4] - The year-on-year growth rates for household appliances and communication tools have also decreased, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [4] Urban vs. Rural Price Trends - There is a divergence in price trends between urban and rural areas, with urban CPI increasing by 0.3% year-on-year while rural CPI decreased by 0.2% [4] - The higher weight of food expenditure in rural consumption leads to a more pronounced impact from food price deflation, resulting in a weaker rural price index [4] Future Outlook - The increase in holiday-related consumption is seen as a temporary spike, and fluctuations in gold prices are expected in November [5] - For sustained improvement in CPI, ongoing policy support will be necessary, as the current factors driving CPI are not expected to be long-lasting [5]