焦煤为何大跌？后市怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent significant drop in coking coal prices, attributing it to a shift in supply expectations following a meeting held by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding energy supply for the heating season in 2025-2026 [4][7]. Market Review - Coking coal prices saw a substantial decline, with the main contract for January 2024 closing at 1213 CNY/ton, down 3.81%, and the May contract at 1272 CNY/ton, down 2.04% [4]. Reasons for Coking Coal Price Drop - The drop in coking coal prices occurred despite strong fundamentals, primarily due to a change in supply expectations after the government meeting emphasized the importance of ensuring energy supply for the heating season [7][9]. Fundamental Conditions - Since June, coal prices have rebounded significantly from below 620 CNY/ton to 817 CNY/ton, driven by tightening supply expectations and a potential cold winter increasing demand [9][12]. - Current market conditions indicate a tight balance in the spot market, with domestic coal production remaining low, although there has been an increase in imported coal from Mongolia [12][15]. Variables to Monitor - The article suggests that while the market has reacted to supply expectation changes, actual coal production has not yet increased, and significant growth in production is unlikely in the fourth quarter due to safety production requirements [15]. - The focus should be on whether the spot market will adjust in response to the futures market's decline [15].