巴克莱下调甲骨文债务评级：明年11月现金或将耗尽，最终可能沦为"垃圾债"

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank has downgraded Oracle's debt rating to "underweight," citing that Oracle's massive capital expenditures for AI data center construction have far exceeded its free cash flow capabilities, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 500%, the highest among major tech companies. The bank predicts Oracle's credit rating may fall to BBB-, nearing junk status [1][3][22]. Group 1: Debt Rating and Financial Health - Oracle's capital expenditures for fulfilling large AI contracts have significantly outstripped its free cash flow, forcing the company to rely heavily on external financing [3][16]. - Barclays forecasts that Oracle will face a severe financing gap starting from fiscal year 2027, with cash potentially running out by November 2026 [3][18]. - Oracle's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 500%, compared to Amazon's 50% and Microsoft's 30%, indicating a precarious financial position [3][16]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Capital Expenditure - The construction cost of an AI data center can reach $50 to $60 billion per gigawatt, which is three times that of traditional data centers, with over half of the costs attributed to purchasing NVIDIA GPUs [7][11]. - Announced AI data center projects in the U.S. are expected to increase power demand by over 45 gigawatts, corresponding to an investment of over $2 trillion [11][12]. - The capital expenditure forecasts for the industry have nearly doubled since early 2025, indicating a significant increase in funding requirements [7][10]. Group 3: Market Impact and Debt Issuance - The issuance of debt by large-scale suppliers has surged, with major companies raising approximately $140 billion in bonds in recent months, and total issuance for the year expected to reach $160 billion [13][14]. - Even companies with AA ratings, such as Meta and Google, have seen significant widening of bond spreads, reflecting market concerns over absorbing such large volumes of debt [15]. - The trend of increased debt issuance is expected to continue as the AI race intensifies, with companies like Meta, Google, and Oracle facing tighter cash flows [15][22]. Group 4: Comparative Financial Position - Among large-scale suppliers, Oracle is the only company with negative free cash flow, highlighting its financial vulnerability [16]. - Meta has a liquidity buffer of approximately $80 billion, while Google maintains over $70 billion in liquidity, reducing their immediate refinancing pressures [18][19]. - Amazon and Microsoft are projected to maintain positive net free cash flow even under extreme capital expenditure scenarios, indicating greater financial stability [20].