中金2026年展望 | 中美经济及债市：中美新老经济分化加剧，债牛趋势更确定

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing divergence between new and old economies in both China and the United States, highlighting the impact of AI on investment and employment, as well as the implications for financial markets and economic stability moving into 2026 [4][6]. Group 1: Economic Divergence - The global economy is experiencing a structural change characterized by the rapid growth of AI-driven high-tech industries, while traditional sectors like real estate and consumption face challenges [4][6]. - In the U.S., the "three highs" (high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages) are pressuring the economy and leading to a decline in corporate profits and economic activity [17][20]. - China's economy is supported by record trade surpluses and fiscal deficits in 2025, but these factors are expected to face constraints in 2026, potentially weakening economic support [4][6]. Group 2: Policy Implications - Global fiscal policies are under increasing constraints, necessitating a shift towards more accommodative monetary policies to alleviate debt interest pressures [4][6]. - The article anticipates that both the U.S. and China will likely see limited fiscal policy enhancements, with a greater probability of accelerated monetary easing [4][6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The stock market is reflecting the strength of the new economy, particularly in AI-related sectors, while the bond market is indicative of the weakening traditional economy [6][8]. - The article suggests that the bond bull market is more certain compared to the stock bull market, as bond yields are expected to decline significantly by the end of 2026 [4][6]. Group 4: Real Estate and Investment Trends - In China, the real estate sector continues to experience downward pressure, with new construction and sales areas declining, which is expected to impact overall economic growth [94][97]. - The article notes that the investment growth rate in real estate has reached historical lows, indicating a significant drag on the economy [97][99]. - The new economy in China, while showing some breakthroughs, still constitutes a small portion of the overall economy, with traditional sectors remaining dominant [91][93].