货政报告解读|保持社会融资条件相对宽松（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the report emphasizes the need for strategic determination and confidence in the face of external uncertainties and challenges to the international economic and trade order, while also highlighting the importance of consolidating the foundation for domestic economic recovery [2][20]. Economic Situation Analysis - The report indicates that external uncertainties have increased, with the international economic growth momentum described as "insufficient" compared to the previous quarter's "weakened" assessment, reflecting heightened concerns about global economic prospects [2][20]. - Domestically, while risks and challenges remain, there is a new emphasis on the need to strengthen the foundation for economic recovery, indicating a commitment to achieving annual economic growth targets despite some slowing in economic indicators [20][21]. Policy Tone - The monetary policy tone has shifted from "implementing detailed and appropriate monetary policy" to "implementing effective monetary policy," focusing on the ultimate effectiveness of policies rather than just their execution [3][21]. - The report introduces a comprehensive approach to maintaining relatively loose social financing conditions, emphasizing the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, particularly in the context of government bond issuance [3][21]. Monetary Policy Operations - The report highlights the need to maintain liquidity and ensure that the growth of social financing and money supply aligns with economic growth and price level expectations [7][21]. - It stresses the importance of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [7][21]. Exchange Rate and Risk Prevention - The report reiterates the importance of maintaining exchange rate flexibility and has removed previous mentions of preventing fund circularity, suggesting that related risks may have been controlled [3][22]. - The focus has shifted to strengthening expectations guidance and maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level [7][22]. Hot Topics - The report discusses the importance of understanding financial aggregate indicators, noting that the growth of social financing and money supply is generally aligned with nominal economic growth, while also acknowledging the natural decline in financial aggregate growth due to the larger base [8][23]. - It emphasizes maintaining reasonable interest rate relationships to support banks' net interest margins and enhance the counter-cyclical adjustment space for monetary policy [23].