AI巨头“非买不可”，厂商掌握最大定价权！大摩：本轮内存“超级周期”将远超历史峰值

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that DRAM prices are reaching historical highs, initiating an unprecedented "super cycle" driven by AI data centers and cloud service providers, who are less sensitive to price changes [2][5] - The report maintains an overweight rating on SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, anticipating that rising memory prices will lead to new stock price highs and significantly exceed profit expectations for memory manufacturers [3] Group 1: Demand Dynamics - The core driver of the current cycle has fundamentally changed, with AI data centers and cloud service giants now leading demand, making memory acquisition a strategic necessity with minimal price sensitivity [5][6] - The demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM) is structurally reducing the production capacity of traditional DRAM, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [5] Group 2: Pricing Trends - Recent channel surveys indicate a dramatic increase in DRAM contract prices, with server DRAM contracts soaring nearly 70% in Q4, far exceeding previous forecasts [6] - The spot price for DDR5 (16Gb) has surged by 336%, rising from $7.50 in September to $20.90, while DDR4 prices have also increased by 50% [6] Group 3: NAND Market Conditions - NAND is experiencing severe shortages, becoming a critical component for AI computing infrastructure and video storage, with 3D NAND wafer prices expected to rise by 65-70% due to limited capacity [7] - The transition from 128TB to 256TB QLC SSDs is noted, with enterprise SSD bit demand projected to grow nearly 50% year-on-year by 2026 [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for further price increases remains significant, as the current server DRAM pricing of $1/Gb could surpass the previous peak of $1.25/Gb from the 2018 cloud super cycle [8] - The ongoing AI-driven capital expenditures are expected to increase the share of memory in total spending, supporting a price-to-book ratio that exceeds historical peaks [10] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The current memory "super cycle" is characterized by lasting drivers, with price increases surpassing historical records and profit outlooks significantly higher than market expectations, creating rare investment opportunities for memory manufacturers [11]