巴克莱：AI狂潮“虹吸”全球资本，AI已让美元“见底”？

Core Viewpoint - The scale of AI infrastructure investment by US tech giants is exceeding expectations, with projections indicating over $3 trillion in investments over the next five years, significantly impacting GDP contributions and reinforcing the view that the dollar has bottomed out [1][3][4]. Investment Scale and Economic Impact - US tech companies have significantly raised their AI capital expenditure forecasts, with the 2025 spending expectation increasing from several hundred billion dollars to approximately $500 billion, equating to over 10% of US GDP over the next five years [3][4]. - The investment surge has begun to show substantial effects on macroeconomic data, contributing an annualized 1 percentage point to US GDP in the first two quarters of 2025, marking the highest level since 2023 [5]. Market Sentiment and Dollar Support - The resilience in economic output driven by AI investments is reshaping market expectations, with Barclays noting that the anticipated slowdown in economic growth may not materialize, thus reducing the likelihood of deep interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5][8]. - The dollar sentiment index from Barclays has turned positive, indicating an improvement in market perceptions of the dollar [5]. Global Capital Flow and Corporate Debt - The AI investment boom is creating a significant capital absorption effect, with the US attracting resources globally through large-scale corporate bond issuances, which is providing silent but substantial support for the dollar [7]. - Despite the prevailing narrative in the foreign exchange market focusing on data gaps and government shutdown risks, the massive AI investments by tech companies and the resulting global capital flows are critical factors influencing the dollar's strength [7]. Risks to Dollar Bottoming Expectations - While the developments reinforce the view that the dollar may have bottomed, there are key risks, including potential interventions in the independence of the Federal Reserve and the possibility of deterioration in the corporate bond market, particularly in segments of the US tech credit space [8].