LSEG跟“宗” | 金价或已见底整固 白银潜力升级

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market, particularly focusing on gold and silver, amid economic uncertainties and potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy. It highlights the implications of geopolitical factors and market dynamics on commodity prices, especially in light of recent developments in U.S.-China relations and the upcoming Federal Reserve decisions [2][28][29]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - Due to the U.S. government shutdown, CFTC data on futures market positions is only updated until September 23, indicating a prevailing expectation of a rate cut in December [2][28]. - Recent concerns over AI stock valuations have negatively impacted the U.S. stock market, with rumors suggesting premeditated actions by influential figures to manipulate asset prices [2][28]. - Gold prices have shown signs of bottoming out, currently fluctuating around $4000, with market sentiment expected to play a crucial role in the coming weeks [2][28]. Group 2: Strategic Metal Developments - China will implement a quota and joint approval system for the export of tungsten, antimony, and silver starting in November, while the U.S. has classified copper, uranium, coal, and silver as strategic metals [2][28]. - This shift indicates a growing recognition of silver's importance, suggesting it may gain a more significant status beyond being merely a "poor man's gold" [2][28]. Group 3: Future Price Predictions and Influences - If Trump can secure control over the Federal Reserve next year, gold prices are expected to have further upward potential, as current indicators suggest he may succeed [3][29]. - The article posits that the market is not fully reflecting the potential for interest rates to drop to 1%, which could lead to increased investment in commodities, particularly gold [29][30]. Group 4: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - The article notes that historically, mining stocks have lagged behind the actual commodity prices, a trend attributed to the rising emphasis on ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) factors in investment decisions [22][30]. - The gold-to-mining stock ratio has shown fluctuations, indicating potential market corrections and the need for investors to monitor these trends closely [19][21]. Group 5: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Outlook - The likelihood of a rate cut in December has decreased from 97.1% to 67.2%, with expectations for potential cuts in early 2024 [26][28]. - The article emphasizes that the market's perception of future interest rate movements is critical for commodity investments, particularly in the context of inflationary pressures [34].