为什么宏观策略是不用择时的？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of timing investments in different asset classes and suggests that a macro strategy, which diversifies across multiple assets, can mitigate the need for precise timing [4][5][6]. Market Overview - The A-share market has been fluctuating between 3800 and 3900 points for the past two months, and after breaking through 4000 points, it faces a new directional choice [5]. - Investors are currently conflicted about whether to invest in stocks, fearing high prices, or in stable bonds, worrying about missing out on potential gains [5]. Asset Performance Analysis - Historical data indicates that no single asset class consistently outperforms; different asset classes have strong and weak years [7][9]. - Over the past decade, A-shares outperformed other assets only in 2019 and 2020, while U.S. stocks also faced significant downturns in 2022 [9]. - Bonds showed stability with good returns last year but faced some pullbacks this year, while commodities had a brief bull run in 2021 and 2022 but performed poorly in other years [10]. Asset Class Characteristics - The core returns of different asset classes are driven by distinct underlying logic: - Stocks benefit from corporate profit growth, performing well in a stable economic environment [12]. - Commodities gain from supply-demand imbalances and inflation, thriving during high inflation or economic overheating [12]. - Bonds rely on fixed interest and price appreciation from falling interest rates, excelling during economic slowdowns or deflationary expectations [12]. Timing and Strategy - Timing investments is crucial for achieving satisfactory returns in single asset investments, with two main objectives: trend following and identifying undervalued assets [13]. - Macro strategies, which are multi-asset in nature, do not require timing as they inherently balance risk across various asset classes [14]. - A well-structured macro strategy can capture both rising and undervalued assets, providing better safety margins and lower costs [15]. Long-term Performance of Strategies - Historical performance of private equity strategies shows that without timing, achieving ideal returns is challenging, often leading to significant volatility [17]. - In contrast, macro strategies tend to yield satisfactory returns regardless of the timing of entry, with relatively lower volatility and better holding experiences [17].