巴克莱下调甲骨文债务评级：明年11月现金或将耗尽，最终可能沦为"垃圾债"

Core Viewpoint - Barclays Bank's fixed income research department highlights Oracle's excessive capital expenditure to fulfill its AI contracts, which has significantly exceeded its free cash flow capacity, leading to a heavy reliance on external financing [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Condition of Oracle - Oracle is predicted to face a severe financing gap starting from the fiscal year 2027, with cash potentially running out by November 2026 [2][19]. - Analyst Andrew Keches downgraded Oracle's debt rating to "Underweight," equivalent to a "sell" recommendation, warning that Oracle may eventually fall to a BBB- rating, close to junk bond territory [2][26]. - Oracle's debt-to-equity ratio is alarmingly high at 500%, compared to Amazon's 50% and Microsoft's 30% [2][19]. Group 2: Capital Expenditure Trends - The surge in capital expenditure is primarily driven by the skyrocketing costs of building AI data centers, which can reach up to $60 billion per gigawatt, three times that of traditional data centers [6][9]. - Capital expenditure forecasts for the industry have nearly doubled since early 2025, indicating a significant increase in future spending [7][9]. - In the U.S. alone, announced AI data center projects are expected to increase power demand by over 45 gigawatts, corresponding to over $2 trillion in investments [9]. Group 3: Debt Market Dynamics - The super-scale vendor industry is increasingly relying on issuing massive amounts of bonds to fund the AI race, which is starting to exert pressure on the credit market [2][13]. - Major super-scale vendors have issued a total of $140 billion in bonds in recent months, with the annual issuance expected to reach $160 billion [15][17]. - Even companies with AA ratings, such as Meta and Google, are experiencing significant widening of bond spreads, indicating higher risk premiums demanded by the market [17]. Group 4: Comparison with Other Tech Giants - Unlike Oracle, most super-scale vendors still generate substantial free cash flow, but companies like Google and Meta have significantly reduced cash available for capital investments due to large stock buybacks and dividend plans [11][12]. - Meta has a liquidity buffer of approximately $80 billion, while Google maintains over $70 billion in liquidity, indicating less immediate refinancing pressure compared to Oracle [21][22]. - Amazon and Microsoft are projected to maintain positive net free cash flow even under extreme capital expenditure scenarios, showing no significant refinancing needs [23]. Group 5: Future Outlook and Risks - Oracle's financial situation is the most precarious among super-scale vendors, with a negative free cash flow and a high debt-to-equity ratio [18][19]. - Barclays predicts that if capital expenditures continue to rise as expected, Oracle's funding gap will become even more pronounced, with potential capital expenditures in fiscal year 2027 exceeding market consensus by 50% [20][26]. - Oracle's growth heavily relies on supplier financing agreements with clients like OpenAI, increasing counterparty risk exposure [28].